November 6th, 2008

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Demise of the Bradley Effect

For those who were curious about how the supposed "Bradley Effect" (that people would tell pollsters that they were voting for the black guy, but not actually do so) played out in reality, I commend today's editorial column in electoral-vote.com.

Summary: they averaged the last round of polls for a bunch of swing states, scaled it to adjust for the undecideds, and compared it with the way the vote actually went. There's nary a hint of the Bradley Effect -- in no case did Obama do significantly worse than the polls said, and he actually did considerably *better* than the polls indicated in a couple of those states.

So the general verdict is that you can put a fork in this long-hypothesized political force: in its biggest test, there's no evidence that it had any noticeable impact.
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Tempus Peregrinator's Little Heraldry Book

So I was just Googling around, looking for the answer to "what does this heraldic charge look like?", and stumbled across The Little Heraldry Book. It's a delight, and well worth a bookmark. It has various articles on heraldry, but most usefully it has a *zillion* pictures of various heraldic charges, colors, field divisions, etc. I particularly note the page on crosses, which shows a wide variety of them and helps show what all those different names refer to.

Recommended to anyone who needs to ask, "What does this heraldese actually *mean*?". Probably especially useful for scribes and illuminators as a quick reference...