Justin du Coeur (jducoeur) wrote,
Justin du Coeur

You don't even need to read between the lines -- just read the lines

As I finished my workout, an ad came on for one of those companies hawking gold. They made the usual silly claims about gold being a "safe haven" and so on. What really struck me, though, was the big headline: "Gold has tripled in value since 2001!"

This is supposed to make me *want* to buy it?

The first rule of economics is pretty simple: that which goes up too fast, will come down. The faster the rise, the steeper the fall when it comes. An asset class that has tripled in value in only eight years -- well, that's a pretty fast rise.

I've been pretty clear for a while that we're in a gold bubble: this is just another bit of evidence. Just as in real estate and stocks, when people are going around, parroting claims about how an asset class is "safe", while at the same time bragging about how fast its value is rising -- that's practically the textbook definition of a bubble.

I don't know when it will crash -- for all I know, it could rise quite a bit higher yet -- but I don't recommend being invested in it when it does. Unlike real estate or stocks, there's not much fundamental value in there to slow down the crash when it comes...
Tags: economics

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