Justin du Coeur (jducoeur) wrote,
Justin du Coeur

The Future of Software Development

Thanks to Tim Bray for the pointer to this collection of thoughts about where software development is going, and especially to (as Tim puts it) this "zinger":
Regarding Java. I fear that Java will have to be abandoned to the "Enterprise Development" world. It will be relegated to the hands of cut-rate business coders bashing out their gray business applications for $30 / hour. We've passed the tipping point on this one. We used to joke that Java would be the next COBOL, but that doesn't seem as funny now that it's true. Java will continue to exist. Millions of lines of it will be written each year. It won't be the driver of innovation, though. As individual programmers, I'd recommend that you learn another language immediately and differentiate yourself from the hordes of low-skill, low-rent outsource coders that will service the mainstream Java consumer.
I largely agree, and recommend that programmers take note.

It's not that Java is going to suddenly go away: it'll be big business for ages to come. I mean, I know lots of people who were still making good money programming COBOL in the 90s. But keep in mind that many of those people had their careers mostly wiped out when Y2K came along, and there's a moral in that: having your career dependent on obsolete technology, even popular obsolete technology, is dangerous in the long run. The only way to survive the long haul of the programming business is to spend time every single day, keeping your skills sharp...
Tags: programming

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